Market
What will be the political fate of Itamar Ben-Gvir by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resigns and rejoins government • 25%
Resigns and remains out of government • 25%
Does not resign • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Official announcements or election results
Story
Ben-Gvir Threatens to Quit Netanyahu's Government Over 'Reckless' Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 08:02 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if a proposed ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas in Gaza is approved. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, announced during a 9 PM press conference that his party would withdraw from the coalition government should the agreement proceed, labeling the deal as "reckless," "irresponsible," and "a disgrace," and arguing that it destroys all of Israel's military achievements in Gaza. He emphasized that if hostilities resume after the ceasefire, his party would consider rejoining the government. Ben-Gvir has also called for a complete halt to humanitarian aid to Gaza. The potential resignation of Ben-Gvir and his party could collapse Netanyahu’s coalition government.
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Join opposition • 25%
Remain in government • 25%
Resign and rejoin later • 25%
Permanently resign • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Removed from Office • 25%
Resigned • 25%
Prime Minister • 25%
Other Position • 25%
Elected to a different role • 25%
Remains PM • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Removed by legal means • 25%
Resign and Not Return • 25%
Do Not Resign • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Resign and Return • 25%
Joins a new political party • 25%
Remains Prime Minister • 25%
Steps down but remains in politics • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Other • 25%
Replaced by party decision • 25%
Remains as Prime Minister • 25%
New leader from current members • 25%
Party dissolved • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Itamar Ben-Gvir • 25%