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What will be the outcome of U.S. export policy changes on AI tech by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stricter export controls • 25%
Relaxed export controls • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
U.S. government announcements or policy documents
Story
ByteDance to Spend $7 Billion on Nvidia Hopper GPUs via U.S. Cloud Computing Amid Export Restrictions
Dec 30, 2024, 02:59 PM
ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, plans to spend up to $7 billion on Nvidia's advanced AI chips in 2025, according to a report from The Information. This investment aims to access Nvidia chips outside of China, navigating around U.S. export restrictions that limit Chinese firms' access to such technology. ByteDance intends to rent access to U.S.-based cloud computing resources powered by these chips, a method that does not violate current export laws. The chips in question include Nvidia's Hopper GPUs, which are in high demand and have been subject to smuggling attempts into China via shell companies and middlemen.
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Moderate controls implemented • 25%
Strict controls implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No new controls implemented • 25%
Acceleration due to alternatives • 25%
Significant slowdown • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Supportive of policies • 25%
Other stance • 25%
Opposed to policies • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other response • 25%
Improved global AI collaboration • 25%
Heightened US-China tensions • 25%
Strengthened US position • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
U.S. government concedes • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Nvidia concedes • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
AMD • 25%
Intel • 25%
Nvidia • 25%
Maintain controls • 25%
Loosen controls • 25%
Remove controls • 25%
Tighten controls • 25%