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What will be the outcome of U.S. efforts to bolster Ukrainian air defenses by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant improvement in air defenses • 25%
Moderate improvement in air defenses • 25%
No noticeable improvement • 25%
Degradation of air defenses • 25%
Reports from the U.S. Department of Defense or Ukrainian government, corroborated by defense analysts.
Story
U.S. Warns of Potential Russian Experimental Hypersonic Missile Attack on Ukraine
Dec 11, 2024, 02:53 PM
U.S. officials have warned that Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik missile, an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, at Ukraine in the coming days. This follows the closure of airspace above the Kapustin Yar Test Site Range from December 7th to December 15th. The U.S. does not consider the Oreshnik missile to be a game-changer on the battlefield but rather an attempt to terrorize Ukraine. In response, the U.S. is focused on providing Ukraine with the necessary air defenses to protect against Russian missiles and drones.
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Aid partially completed • 25%
Aid completed successfully • 25%
Aid redirected to other priorities • 25%
Aid halted due to political changes • 25%
Ukraine receives 10-19 systems • 25%
Ukraine receives all 20 requested systems • 25%
Ukraine receives no systems • 25%
Ukraine receives 1-9 systems • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No noticeable change • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
