Market
What change, if any, will occur in U.S. deportation policy for Colombians by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Protocol with Colombia • 25%
Use of civilian flights • 25%
Decreased deportations • 25%
U.S. government policy announcements or news reports
Story
Petro Denies U.S. Military Planes Carrying 160 Colombian Deportees Entry into Colombia
Jan 26, 2025, 03:21 PM
Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced on X that he will deny entry to American planes carrying Colombian migrants being deported from the United States. He stated, "I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory." Citing that migrants are not criminals, Petro emphasized that the U.S. must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before Colombia will accept them. Two U.S. military planes carrying approximately 160 deported migrants were turned back under his orders. Petro insists that deported migrants should only be returned on civilian flights under conditions that guarantee their dignity.
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Other policy changes • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Visa revocations • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Major disputes lead to sanctions • 25%
Agreement honored without issues • 25%
Minor disputes resolved • 25%
Agreement terminated • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
U.S. lifts visa suspension without compliance • 25%
Colombia accepts deportation flights • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Legal actions against US • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Continued rejection of flights • 25%