Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's Ukraine peace efforts within his first 100 days?
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Donald Trump•Ukraine•Trump•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Russia•Keith Kellogg•World War III•Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No change in conflict status • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements from the White House, Ukrainian government, or Russian government
Story
Trump Pledges to End Ukraine War in 24 Hours, Says Zelensky Seeks Peace Deal
Jan 21, 2025, 01:04 AM
On the eve of his second inauguration, President Donald Trump pledged to swiftly end the war in Ukraine, asserting he could achieve this within 24 hours. Trump announced plans to call Russian President Vladimir Putin after his inauguration to discuss a potential meeting focused on resolving the Ukraine conflict. He stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had expressed willingness to reach a peace agreement with Russia. Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, indicated that a resolution could be achieved within 100 days of the new administration. Trump emphasized his commitment to preventing World War III and remarked that the conflict would not have started if he had been president. Meanwhile, Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory and expressed readiness to engage in talks about Ukraine and nuclear weapons, emphasizing a desire for a lasting peace rather than a temporary ceasefire.
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Other outcome • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
Accepted by Russia and Ukraine • 25%
Escalation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Complete resolution • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Postponement of discussions • 25%
Agreement to meet for negotiations • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Agreement on further talks • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Full peace agreement signed • 25%
No resolution achieved • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Other resolution • 25%