Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's European-led ceasefire proposal by December 31, 2025?
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Biden•Ukraine•Russia•American•Donald Trump•Russian•Trump•Europe•European•NATO•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelenskyy•French•Emmanuel Macron•Paris•China
Resolution / Starting Odds
Accepted and implemented • 25%
Accepted but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No decision • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or international organizations
Story
Biden Announces $500M Aid for Ukraine; Trump Proposes European-Led Ceasefire
Dec 13, 2024, 02:45 AM
The Biden administration has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $500 million, aimed at bolstering Ukraine's defense against Russia's ongoing invasion. This package includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs), drones, armored vehicles, and protective gear against unconventional weapons. The announcement comes as tensions escalate with Russia over Ukraine's use of American-made ballistic missiles. President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, has criticized the use of these missiles by Ukraine to attack Russian territory, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy towards Ukraine. Trump has proposed that Europe should take the lead in managing a ceasefire in Ukraine, with European troops overseeing the process, while he opposes Ukraine's NATO membership. This proposal was discussed during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Trump's plan envisions Europe leading Ukraine's defense with minimal U.S. involvement, focusing on a ceasefire and negotiations to end the conflict. He also suggested that European countries should pressure China to influence Russia to end the conflict.
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No official response • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Partial acceptance • 25%
Full acceptance • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Continued negotiations without ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Peace negotiations started • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Accepted and implemented • 25%
No decision • 25%
Accepted but not implemented • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace negotiations started • 25%
Accepted by Russia and Ukraine • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No comment • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Critical • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Supportive • 25%