Market
What will be the outcome of the US debt ceiling negotiation under Trump?
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Donald Trump•Kevin McCarthy•Trump•McCarthy•Biden Administration•Republican•Matt Gaetz•Biden•House Republicans
Resolution / Starting Odds
Raised with cuts • 25%
Raised without cuts • 25%
Not raised • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official records from the US Congress or major news outlets reporting on the negotiation outcome
Story
Trump Criticizes McCarthy for Delaying Debt Ceiling Fight, Calls Decision 'Dumbest' in Years; Advocates $2.5T Cuts and Vote
Dec 29, 2024, 10:35 PM
Former President Donald Trump criticized ex-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy for delaying the debt ceiling fight, stating that this decision will be remembered as one of the dumbest political choices made in years. Trump specifically mentioned that McCarthy's actions pushed the debt ceiling issue from the Biden Administration into his own term. Trump's comments were echoed by Republican figures, including Matt Gaetz, who noted that this misstep contributed to McCarthy's loss of the speakership. Additionally, Trump called for a vote on raising the debt limit before President Biden leaves office, as House Republicans had reportedly reached an internal agreement before Christmas to raise the limit in a reconciliation bill paired with $2.5 trillion in cuts, which is expected to take place after Trump assumes office again.
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Similar markets
No action taken • 25%
Implements temporary measures • 25%
Fails to raise debt ceiling • 25%
Successfully raises debt ceiling • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
No resolution, extraordinary measures continue • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other • 25%
Partisan agreement with concessions • 25%
Bipartisan agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Debt ceiling not addressed • 34%
Debt ceiling raised • 33%
Temporary suspension of debt ceiling • 33%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Other legislative action • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Debt ceiling remains unchanged • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
Debt ceiling increased • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling abolished • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Debt ceiling unchanged • 25%
Extended with a different date • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Extended to 2029 • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Extraordinary measures initiated without raising/suspending • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Suspended • 25%
Increased • 25%
No Change • 25%
Government Shutdown • 25%
Debt Ceiling Extended • 25%
Debt Ceiling Abolished • 25%