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What will be the outcome of Republican leadership changes in the House?
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Donald Trump•Kevin McCarthy•Trump•McCarthy•Biden Administration•Republican•Matt Gaetz•Biden•House Republicans
Resolution / Starting Odds
Matt Gaetz takes leadership role • 25%
Kevin McCarthy returns to leadership • 25%
New leadership emerges • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official records from the US Congress or major news outlets reporting on leadership changes
Story
Trump Criticizes McCarthy for Delaying Debt Ceiling Fight, Calls Decision 'Dumbest' in Years; Advocates $2.5T Cuts and Vote
Dec 29, 2024, 10:35 PM
Former President Donald Trump criticized ex-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy for delaying the debt ceiling fight, stating that this decision will be remembered as one of the dumbest political choices made in years. Trump specifically mentioned that McCarthy's actions pushed the debt ceiling issue from the Biden Administration into his own term. Trump's comments were echoed by Republican figures, including Matt Gaetz, who noted that this misstep contributed to McCarthy's loss of the speakership. Additionally, Trump called for a vote on raising the debt limit before President Biden leaves office, as House Republicans had reportedly reached an internal agreement before Christmas to raise the limit in a reconciliation bill paired with $2.5 trillion in cuts, which is expected to take place after Trump assumes office again.
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Similar markets
New House Speaker • 25%
New RNC Chair • 25%
New Senate Majority Leader • 25%
No major changes • 25%
No change • 25%
New member addition • 25%
Virginia Foxx replaced • 25%
Member removal • 25%
Enhanced oversight of intelligence agencies • 25%
Increased focus on cybersecurity • 25%
Greater emphasis on counterintelligence • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
Other • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Ralph Norman • 25%
Chip Roy • 25%
Other member • 25%
Michelle Fischbach • 25%
Failed to pass • 25%
Passed with amendments • 25%
Not voted on by deadline • 25%
Passed with majority • 25%
Democratic Party • 33%
Republican Party • 33%
Coalition or Other • 34%
Another candidate wins • 25%
No winner on first ballot • 25%
Mike Johnson wins • 25%
Byron Donalds wins • 25%
Vacant position • 25%
New Republican Speaker • 25%
Mike Johnson remains as Speaker • 25%
Democratic Speaker • 25%
Jamaal Bowman • 25%
Katie Porter • 25%
Other • 25%
Ilhan Omar • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
J.D. Vance • 25%