Market
What will be the outcome of the national caucus meeting on January 8, 2025, regarding Trudeau's leadership?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Trudeau resigns • 25%
Trudeau ousted • 25%
Trudeau remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets covering the national caucus meeting
Story
Canadian PM Trudeau May Resign Before Wednesday; Announcement Could Come Monday
Jan 6, 2025, 01:35 AM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation before the national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday, according to reports from the Globe and Mail and columnist Lawrence Martin. Sources indicate that Trudeau may step down as Liberal Party Leader, with an announcement possibly coming as early as Monday. Liberal insiders suggest that if Trudeau doesn't resign before the caucus meeting, he could face being ousted by a leadership vote. A cabinet shuffle is anticipated should he step down.
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Motion Withdrawn • 34%
Motion Passes • 33%
Motion Fails • 33%
Vote delayed • 25%
Trudeau government survives • 25%
Trudeau government falls • 25%
No vote held • 25%
Vote fails, government remains • 25%
Vote postponed • 25%
Vote cancelled • 25%
Vote passes, government falls • 25%
Continues as PM • 34%
Resignation • 33%
Prorogation • 33%
Vote fails • 25%
No vote initiated • 25%
Vote passes, Trudeau remains • 25%
Vote passes, Trudeau resigns • 25%
Trudeau stays without changes • 25%
Trudeau stays after negotiation • 25%
Trudeau resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trudeau government survives • 33%
Trudeau government defeated • 33%
No vote held • 34%
Vote delayed • 25%
Motion passes, government falls • 25%
Motion fails, government remains • 25%
Motion withdrawn • 25%
Trudeau resigns • 25%
Trudeau remains PM • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Liberal Party leadership change • 25%