Market
What will be the outcome of the first prosecution under Germany's new migrant smuggling law by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conviction • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Case dropped • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
German court records or announcements from the German Ministry of Justice
Story
Germany to Criminalize Smuggling Migrants to UK Under New Joint Action Plan
Dec 10, 2024, 06:41 AM
Germany and the United Kingdom have signed a first-of-its-kind joint action plan to combat migrant smuggling, making it a specific criminal offense in Germany to facilitate people-smuggling towards the UK. The agreement, signed by officials from both countries including German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, aims to enhance cooperation between law enforcement agencies and boost investigations and prosecutions of criminal gangs involved in organizing dangerous small boat crossings across the English Channel. This move comes as over 33,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats in 2024 alone. The new legal measures will close a loophole that previously allowed human smugglers to stash boats and prepare crossings in Germany without facing prosecution. Recent operations have resulted in 13 people arrested and 21 boats seized. The action plan is expected to put significant pressure on these criminal networks and prevent migrants from attempting perilous journeys. The agreement was discussed at a Calais Group meeting held in the UK.
View original story
Similar markets
No Actions Taken • 25%
Ongoing Trials • 25%
Acquittals • 25%
Convictions • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted of a lesser charge • 25%
Convicted of attempted murder • 25%
Policy reversal or modification • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Successful reduction in smuggling • 25%
Increase in smuggling activities • 25%
Tightening Policies • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Loosening Policies • 25%
Stricter migration policies • 25%
More lenient migration policies • 25%
No change in policies • 25%
Temporary changes only • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Convicted of terrorism • 25%
Convicted of manslaughter • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Plea Deal • 25%
Other • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Majority rejections • 25%
Majority approvals • 25%
Other • 25%
Equal approvals and rejections • 25%
Conviction with fine • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction with prison sentence • 25%
Case dropped • 25%
