Market
How will Germany's immigration policy change following the Magdeburg attack by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Tightening Policies • 25%
Loosening Policies • 25%
No Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements or legislative changes reported by the German government
Story
Saudi Arabia Warned Germany About Taleb al-Abdulmohsen Before December 21 Attack That Killed Five, Injured 200+
Dec 23, 2024, 12:14 PM
Saudi Arabia has confirmed that it issued multiple warnings to Germany about Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, the suspect in a deadly car-ramming attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg. The attack, which occurred on December 21, 2024, resulted in the deaths of at least five people, including a nine-year-old boy, and injured over 200 others. Al-Abdulmohsen, a Saudi psychiatrist, reportedly held anti-Islam views and was critical of Germany's immigration policies. German authorities had previously identified him as a potential threat as early as 2015. Despite these warnings, Germany did not take action. Saudi Arabia had also sought the extradition of al-Abdulmohsen prior to the attack, citing concerns about his extremist views. Following the incident, it has been revealed that al-Abdulmohsen left a will in the vehicle he used during the attack, further complicating the investigation into his motives.
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No change in policies • 25%
Stricter migration policies • 25%
Temporary changes only • 25%
More lenient migration policies • 25%
No change • 25%
More lenient policies • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Stricter policies • 25%
Enhanced public event security • 25%
Stricter immigration controls • 25%
Increased surveillance • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Legislative changes • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No change • 25%
Increase cooperation • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Decrease cooperation • 25%
Looser immigration policies • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Stricter immigration policies • 25%
Initiate deportations • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Increase support • 25%
Decrease support • 25%
Heightened security measures • 25%
Increased focus on mental health • 25%
Increased calls for immigration reform • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Procedural recommendations issued • 25%
Significant security lapses identified • 25%
No significant lapses found • 25%
Other • 25%