Market
What will be the outcome of legal challenges to Trump's transgender military ban by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban modified • 25%
No legal challenge • 25%
Court rulings or legal announcements
Story
Trump to Sign Orders Banning Transgender Service, Eliminating DEI, Reinstating Discharged Members
Jan 27, 2025, 05:03 PM
President Donald Trump is set to sign three executive orders on Monday that will significantly impact the U.S. military. The first order, to be implemented by newly appointed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, will ban transgender individuals from serving in the military, citing issues with mental and physical readiness, including a minimum of 12 months required for post-transition surgery treatments. The order will also include new guidelines on gender pronouns. The second order will eliminate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs within the military, arguing that such initiatives are discriminatory and detrimental to military cohesion. The third order will reinstate approximately 8,000 service members who were discharged for refusing the Covid-19 vaccine, providing them with back pay and benefits. These orders follow Trump's earlier actions to revoke Biden-era policies allowing transgender service and to dismantle federal DEI programs. As of 2018, there were an estimated 14,000 transgender service members in the U.S. military.
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Upheld • 33%
Modified • 34%
Overturned • 33%
Partially Challenged • 25%
Successfully Challenged • 25%
Challenges Ongoing • 25%
No Successful Challenges • 25%
No ruling by end of 2025 • 25%
Orders upheld • 25%
Orders partially overturned • 25%
Orders completely overturned • 25%
Partially overturned • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Pending • 25%
Fully overturned • 25%
Orders upheld • 25%
Orders fully overturned • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Orders partially overturned • 25%
Major challenges • 34%
Some challenges • 33%
No major challenges • 33%
Upheld • 25%
Completely overturned • 25%
No ruling • 25%
Partially overturned • 25%
No legal challenge • 33%
Reach federal appeals court • 34%
Challenge but not reach appeals court • 33%
Order fully overturned • 25%
No legal challenge • 25%
Order partially overturned • 25%
Order upheld • 25%
3-5 Challenges • 25%
No Challenges • 25%
1-2 Challenges • 25%
More than 5 Challenges • 25%