Market
What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful De-escalation • 25%
Continued Tensions • 25%
Increased Hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or reports from credible news agencies
Story
Russia Vows Retaliation After Intercepting 8 ATACMS Missiles and 72 Drones in Belgorod Region
Jan 4, 2025, 11:05 AM
Russia has vowed to retaliate after it reported intercepting eight U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles and 72 drones launched by Ukraine targeting the Belgorod region on January 3. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the missiles were downed by S-400 and Pantsir-SM air defense systems. The ministry warned that these actions by Kyiv, supported by Western backers, would face retaliation. The ATACMS missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers, were authorized for use by Ukraine by the outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden in November, a move Moscow considers a significant escalation in the conflict.
View original story
Similar markets
Other • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
No change in conflict status • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Comprehensive agreement • 25%
Negotiations with no agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Return to JCPoA • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Continued escalation • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
None released • 25%
Some released • 25%
All three released • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Successful reduction • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%