Market
What will be the outcome of Colombia-US relations regarding deportees and trade tariffs in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Colombia maintains agreement, no tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia retracts agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia maintains agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia retracts agreement, no tariffs imposed • 25%
Official government statements and trade reports
Story
Colombia Sends Planes for 160 Deportees After Trump's Tariff Threats
Jan 27, 2025, 11:10 AM
Colombia has agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs and sanctions on the South American nation. Initially, Colombia's President Gustavo Petro had refused to allow U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombian migrants to land, stating that the migrants should be treated with dignity and not like criminals. In response, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all Colombian imports, potentially increasing to 50% within a week, and implement visa restrictions on Colombian officials. After the threat, Petro quickly agreed to accept the deported migrants, offering to send the presidential plane to transport them. Two Colombian government planes were dispatched to the United States to repatriate 160 deportees. The White House confirmed that Colombia had agreed to all of Trump's terms, leading to the suspension of the threatened tariffs and sanctions.
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Similar markets
Relations worsen • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Agreement honored without issues • 25%
Major disputes lead to sanctions • 25%
Agreement terminated • 25%
Minor disputes resolved • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
U.S. maintains tariffs and sanctions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Colombia concedes to U.S. demands • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Military flights accepted • 25%
Protocol established • 25%
Civilian flights only • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Visa revocations • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other responses • 25%
Continued rejection of flights • 25%
Legal actions against US • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%