Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Colombia trade relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreements, official announcements, news reports
Story
Colombia Agrees to Accept Deported Migrants on U.S. Military Aircraft After Trump's 25% to 50% Tariff Threats
Jan 27, 2025, 03:49 AM
The White House announced that Colombia has agreed to all of President Donald Trump's terms regarding the deportation of migrants. This agreement includes the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay. The decision came after Trump threatened 25% tariffs, which would rise to 50% after one week, and other sanctions on Colombia, following the country's initial refusal to accept deportation flights. The Colombian government, led by President Gustavo Petro, has arranged for the presidential plane to facilitate the return of these migrants, ensuring their dignified treatment. The tariff orders will be held in reserve unless Colombia fails to honor the agreement, while visa sanctions and enhanced customs inspections will remain in place until the first group of deportees is returned.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreements signed • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Further deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Significant Increase • 25%
Moderate Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
Colombia maintains agreement, no tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia retracts agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia maintains agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Colombia retracts agreement, no tariffs imposed • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Colombia concedes to U.S. demands • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. maintains tariffs and sanctions • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Further sanctions imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Minor disputes resolved • 25%
Agreement terminated • 25%
Major disputes lead to sanctions • 25%
Agreement honored without issues • 25%
Trade significantly decreases • 25%
Trade remains stable • 25%
Trade increases • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%