Market
What will be the outcome for Salvini in the next Italian election?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Salvini wins a major position • 25%
Salvini loses but remains influential • 25%
Salvini loses and fades from politics • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official Italian election results and reports from credible news sources
Story
Italy's Deputy PM Salvini Acquitted in Palermo of Kidnapping Charges Over 2019 Open Arms Migrant Blockade
Dec 20, 2024, 07:08 PM
An Italian court in Palermo has acquitted Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini on charges of kidnapping and dereliction of duty related to his August 2019 decision to prevent the Spanish NGO rescue ship Open Arms, carrying 147 migrants, from docking in Sicily. The migrants were kept onboard for nearly three weeks as Salvini, then serving as interior minister, refused to allow the vessel to disembark. Prosecutors had sought a six-year prison sentence, but the court ruled there was no case to answer, clearing Salvini of all charges. Salvini welcomed the verdict, stating that defending the homeland is a right, not a crime.
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Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Elected to a higher office • 25%
Resigns from position • 25%
Remains Deputy PM • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Above 50% • 25%
Between 40% and 50% • 25%
Between 30% and 40% • 25%
Below 30% • 25%
Sanctions or penalties • 25%
No response • 25%
Formal condemnation • 25%
Policy review • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Minor cabinet reshuffle • 25%
Major cabinet reshuffle • 25%
New legislation passed • 25%
Court challenge successful • 25%
Public protests • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Party leadership changes • 25%
Other political consequence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Santanchè resigns from party • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No single party wins majority • 25%
PSD wins majority • 25%
PNL wins majority • 25%
Hungarian Democratic Union wins majority • 25%