Market
What will be the EU's response to Turkey's recognition of HTS by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
EU removes HTS from terrorist list • 25%
EU imposes sanctions on Turkey • 25%
EU maintains current stance • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official EU resolutions or international news reports
Story
Turkey's Hakan Fidan Recognizes HTS as Legitimate Partner, Calls for EU to Remove Terrorist Designation After 10 Years
Dec 21, 2024, 09:59 AM
Turkey has officially recognized the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group as a legitimate partner and has called on the European Union to remove it from its list of terrorist organizations. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that HTS has distanced itself from radical elements such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, asserting that the group has not engaged in any terrorist activities over the past decade, a claim supported by Western intelligence agencies. Fidan emphasized that HTS has been cooperative with Turkey in intelligence gathering related to groups linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. He also noted that communication and discussions with the Syrian government have already commenced, with international officials from the UN and EU involved in the process.
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Condemnation by NATO • 25%
Condemnation by EU • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No official condemnation • 25%
France formally recognizes HTS • 25%
UK formally recognizes HTS • 25%
Germany formally recognizes HTS • 25%
No formal recognition by any • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Condemnation by major countries • 25%
Support from some countries • 25%
Neutral stance by major powers • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Turkey • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Support for Turkey • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other response • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other response • 25%
Support from NATO • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Full support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
Diplomatic pressure but no sanctions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
General support • 25%