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What will be the deployment status of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon by February 23, 2025?
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Israel•Lebanon•Benjamin Netanyahu•United States•Hezbollah•Lebanese army•Lebanese•Litani River•Trump•Israel Defense Forces
Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully deployed • 25%
Partially deployed • 25%
Not deployed • 25%
Deployment status unclear • 25%
Reports from international observers or credible news agencies
Story
Israel Seeks 30-Day Extension for Lebanon Withdrawal, Citing Hezbollah Violations
Jan 24, 2025, 12:29 PM
Israel has announced that it will not complete its withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon by the Sunday deadline set under the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, citing that the agreement has not been fully enforced by Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office officially stated that the withdrawal process will continue beyond the 60-day period and will be coordinated with the United States. Israel is seeking a 30-day extension due to Hezbollah's violations and the Lebanese army's failure to fully deploy in the south. The ceasefire agreement allows for an extension if Lebanese forces are not fully deployed and Hezbollah has not retreated beyond the Litani River as required. Israel communicated its intentions to the U.S., but the Trump administration is reportedly pushing for the Israel Defense Forces to adhere to the Sunday exit deadline. There is concern that the delay could lead to a resumption of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Similar markets
Fully deployed • 25%
Deployment delayed • 25%
Not deployed • 25%
Partially deployed • 25%
Full deployment as per ceasefire • 25%
Partial deployment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deployment • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased presence • 25%
Fully withdrawn beyond Litani River • 25%
Partially withdrawn • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Joint Lebanese Army and UNIFIL • 25%
UNIFIL • 25%
Lebanese Army • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
Political agreement • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Other • 25%