Market
What will be the confirmed number of fatalities in the Azerbaijan Airlines crash by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 10 • 25%
10 to 20 • 25%
21 to 30 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%
Official reports or announcements from Azerbaijan Airlines or aviation authorities
Story
Azerbaijan Airlines Blames 'External Interference' for Kazakhstan Crash, Halts Flights to 10 Russian Cities
Dec 27, 2024, 12:54 PM
Azerbaijan Airlines announced that preliminary investigation results indicate that its Embraer aircraft, operating a flight from Baku to Grozny, which crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan on Wednesday, experienced 'external physical and technical interference'. The crash resulted in fatalities. Following the incident, the airline has suspended flights to 10 Russian cities.
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More than 30 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Missile strike confirmed • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Comprehensive resolution with accountability • 25%
Partial resolution with some accountability • 25%
Unresolved with no accountability • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Russian military fault • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Joint investigation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Russia denies involvement • 25%
Joint responsibility acknowledged • 25%
Russia admits guilt • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Russian missile confirmed • 25%
31 to 40 • 25%
24 to 30 • 25%
23 or fewer • 25%
More than 40 • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other actions • 25%