Market
What will be the official cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 crash by December 31, 2025?
2
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432•Baku•Grozny•Aktau•Kazakhstan•Azerbaijani•Euronews•Reuters•Ukrainian•Russian•Chechnya•Embraer E190•Caspian Sea
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russian missile confirmed • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Final report from the official investigation body, such as the aviation authorities of Kazakhstan or an international body
Story
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432 Crashes in Kazakhstan, Killing 38; Azerbaijani Sources Blame Russian Missile
Dec 26, 2024, 01:33 PM
An Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8432, en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Wednesday, December 25, resulting in the deaths of 38 of the 67 people on board. According to Azerbaijani government sources cited by Euronews and Reuters, as well as Ukrainian officials and aviation experts, a Russian surface-to-air missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defense system caused the crash. The missile was reportedly launched during a drone air operation over Grozny, Chechnya, and exploded near the Embraer E190 aircraft, damaging it. After being denied permission to make an emergency landing at Russian airports, the pilots were allegedly instructed to fly over the Caspian Sea, leading to the crash in Kazakhstan. Russian authorities have not confirmed these claims.
View original story
Similar markets
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
External interference confirmed • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Pilot Error • 25%
Other • 25%
Weather Conditions • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Other • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Pilot Error • 25%
External Interference • 25%
Technical Failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Russian air defenses • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Bird strike • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
External Interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Pilot Error • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Russian air defense involvement confirmed • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Russian military fault • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%
Pilot error • 25%