Market
What will be the change in HTS's international status by end of 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Recognized as legitimate by UN • 25%
Recognized by additional countries • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Designated as terrorist by new entities • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major news outlets
Story
Turkey's Hakan Fidan Recognizes HTS as Legitimate Partner, Calls for EU to Remove Terrorist Designation After 10 Years
Dec 21, 2024, 09:59 AM
Turkey has officially recognized the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group as a legitimate partner and has called on the European Union to remove it from its list of terrorist organizations. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that HTS has distanced itself from radical elements such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS, asserting that the group has not engaged in any terrorist activities over the past decade, a claim supported by Western intelligence agencies. Fidan emphasized that HTS has been cooperative with Turkey in intelligence gathering related to groups linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. He also noted that communication and discussions with the Syrian government have already commenced, with international officials from the UN and EU involved in the process.
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Removed as a terrorist organization • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Re-designated with conditions • 25%
Remains as a terrorist organization • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Under review • 25%
Recognized as non-terrorist • 25%
Remains on terrorist lists • 25%
Reclassified under different terms • 25%
No change • 25%
Retains terrorist designation • 25%
Removed from terrorist list • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Reinstatement of bounty • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Critical response • 25%
Supportive response • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No official statement • 25%
Negotiations end without agreement • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Condemned and sanctioned • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other stance • 25%
Recognized as legitimate government • 25%
Increased international engagement • 25%
Reduction in territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Expansion of territory • 25%
