Market
What role will the Trump administration play in the Gaza ceasefire deal by March 31, 2025?
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Joe Biden•Israel•Hamas•Gaza•State Department•Biden•American•Keith Siegel•Palestinian•Qatar•Egypt•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Major role • 25%
Minor role • 25%
No role • 25%
Role unclear • 25%
Statements from the Trump administration or coverage by major news outlets like The Washington Post or NBC News
Story
Biden: Gaza Ceasefire Deal for 33 Hostages and 1000 Prisoners Nears Completion, Involving Trump Administration
Jan 13, 2025, 08:39 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden has announced that a ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is on the brink of being finalized. Speaking at the State Department, Biden emphasized that the proposal he outlined months ago is close to coming to fruition. The deal aims to secure the release of 33 hostages, including at least two American citizens, Sagui Dekel-Chen and Keith Siegel, in exchange for a ceasefire lasting at least six weeks and the release of over 1000 Palestinian prisoners. The U.S. is working urgently to close the agreement, with Biden having been in communication with key intermediaries, including the leaders of Qatar and Egypt, to facilitate the negotiations. The incoming Trump administration has also been involved in the mediation process.
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No role • 25%
Mediator • 25%
Observer • 25%
Direct negotiator • 25%
No involvement • 25%
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Minor diplomatic role • 25%
Major diplomatic role • 25%
Unsuccessful, ceasefire collapses • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Successful, ceasefire holds • 25%
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Significant role • 25%
Unclear role • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No change • 25%
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Support for Israel's position • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
