Market
What major legal challenges will the U.S. mass deportation plan face by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
Federal court injunction • 25%
State-level challenges • 25%
No major legal challenges • 25%
Tracking legal proceedings and court cases filed against the deportation plan in the U.S.
Story
Trump Plans Largest U.S. Mass Deportation with AI Role as Mexican Views Harden
Dec 2, 2024, 10:18 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to implement the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history, targeting undocumented residents. Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to play a central role in this initiative, potentially enhancing the efficiency of immigration enforcement. Reports suggest that a budget request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas inadvertently provides Trump with an advantage in utilizing AI for this purpose. The plan, which is a signature campaign promise of Trump, has also influenced public opinion in Mexico, where views on migration have hardened, with growing support for stricter enforcement.
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No significant legal challenges • 25%
6-10 significant legal challenges • 25%
1-5 significant legal challenges • 25%
More than 10 significant legal challenges • 25%
Plan blocked • 25%
Plan modified • 25%
Ongoing litigation • 25%
Plan upheld • 25%
No legal challenges • 25%
Plan partially blocked • 25%
Plan blocked • 25%
Plan upheld • 25%
Multiple lawsuits filed • 25%
Court orders halting operations • 25%
No lawsuits filed • 25%
Single lawsuit filed • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Overturned • 25%
Partially upheld • 25%
No decision by end of 2025 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Challenges reaching appellate courts • 25%
Challenges in lower courts only • 25%
No significant legal challenges • 25%
Challenges reaching the Supreme Court • 25%
Operation continues unchanged • 25%
Operation halted • 25%
Operation modified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Plan fully blocked • 25%
Plan upheld • 25%
Plan partially blocked • 25%
No significant legal challenges • 25%