Market
What design changes will SpaceX implement in response to the Flight 7 anomaly by July 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Raptor engine redesign • 25%
Avionics system overhaul • 25%
Tank system modification • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Official SpaceX updates and engineering reports
Story
SpaceX Loses Starship V2 Upper Stage in Flight 7 Test After Engine Anomaly
Jan 16, 2025, 10:53 PM
SpaceX has encountered a significant issue during the Starship Flight 7 test, resulting in the loss of telemetry and communications with the Starship upper stage. The company confirmed the loss of signal shortly after the spacecraft's separation from the booster, following the shutdown of several Raptor engines. This event marks the first launch of the upgraded Starship V2 vehicle, which introduced numerous changes including new avionics and tank systems. SpaceX commentators have indicated that they are assuming the ship has been lost due to this 'anomaly.' Despite the setback, the booster was successfully caught, providing valuable data for future missions.
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Fuel leak • 25%
Structural failure • 25%
Software malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Rapid turnaround time under 20 days • 25%
No major innovation • 25%
New reusability technology • 25%
Increased payload capacity • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Program pause • 25%
Design overhaul • 25%
Other • 25%
Flight 8 launch • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Decision Pending • 25%
Approved without changes • 25%
Approved with modifications • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Design flaw identified • 25%
Manufacturing defect identified • 25%
Operational error identified • 25%
Other cause identified • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other cause identified • 25%
Fuel leak identified as cause • 25%
Structural failure identified as cause • 25%
Software malfunction identified as cause • 25%
Manufacturing Defect • 25%
Operational Error • 25%
Other • 25%
Design Flaw • 25%