Market
Will SpaceX identify and announce the cause of the Flight 7 anomaly by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official SpaceX press releases or statements
Story
SpaceX Loses Starship V2 Upper Stage in Flight 7 Test After Engine Anomaly
Jan 16, 2025, 10:53 PM
SpaceX has encountered a significant issue during the Starship Flight 7 test, resulting in the loss of telemetry and communications with the Starship upper stage. The company confirmed the loss of signal shortly after the spacecraft's separation from the booster, following the shutdown of several Raptor engines. This event marks the first launch of the upgraded Starship V2 vehicle, which introduced numerous changes including new avionics and tank systems. SpaceX commentators have indicated that they are assuming the ship has been lost due to this 'anomaly.' Despite the setback, the booster was successfully caught, providing valuable data for future missions.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Design Flaw • 25%
Manufacturing Defect • 25%
Operational Error • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Software malfunction • 25%
Fuel leak • 25%
Structural failure • 25%
Operational error identified • 25%
Other cause identified • 25%
Design flaw identified • 25%
Manufacturing defect identified • 25%
Software malfunction identified as cause • 25%
Fuel leak identified as cause • 25%
Structural failure identified as cause • 25%
Other cause identified • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
External interference • 25%
Human error • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Other • 25%