Market
What changes will occur in policies regarding transgender prisoners by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy reversal • 25%
Policy amendment • 25%
No change • 25%
New supportive policies • 25%
Official announcements from the federal government or relevant agencies
Story
Trump Orders 1,538 Transgender Women to Men's Prisons, Bans Federal Funding for Transition Treatments
Jan 27, 2025, 05:19 PM
President Donald Trump has issued an executive order titled 'Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,' which mandates that transgender women be housed in men's federal prisons. The order also prohibits the use of federal funds for gender transition treatments for inmates. This policy affects approximately 1,538 transgender women currently in federal custody, representing 15% of the 10,047 female inmates. Additionally, there are 750 transgender men among the 144,036 male inmates. The directive has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that it increases the risk of violence and assault against transgender inmates. In response, a transgender woman, Maria Moe, who is currently in federal custody, has filed a lawsuit against the administration, claiming that the order violates her constitutional and statutory rights and endangers her safety. The lawsuit seeks to block the executive order and maintain her current housing and medical treatment.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No incidents reported • 25%
Policy not fully implemented • 25%
Minor incidents reported • 25%
Significant incidents reported • 25%
Decreased support for policy change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Policy change implemented • 25%
Increased support for policy change • 25%
Sports participation ban • 25%
Other • 25%
School policy changes • 25%
Military exclusion • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Provision is overturned by court • 25%
Provision is removed • 25%
Provision is amended • 25%
Provision remains unchanged • 25%