Market
Reversal of Trump's transgender prisoner policy by end of 2025?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Department of Justice or major news outlets
Story
Trump Orders Recognize Only Two Sexes Based on Reproductive Cells, Impact Federal Prisons and Face Legal Challenges
Jan 23, 2025, 02:05 PM
President Donald Trump has signed executive orders on his first day back in office, declaring that the U.S. government will only recognize two sexes, male and female, based on the reproductive cells at conception, and reversing Biden administration policies on LGBTQ+ rights. The orders assert that these sexes are immutable and not changeable, aiming to dismantle transgender protections and prevent federal funds from being used on what the administration terms 'gender ideology.' The directives are expected to impact federal documents, such as passports, which will now only reflect the sex assigned at birth. Additionally, federal prison policies will be affected, mandating that transgender women be housed in men's facilities and halting gender-affirming medical care. Legal challenges are anticipated as the orders clash with recent interpretations of Supreme Court rulings on anti-bias protections for LGBTQ+ workers.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military exclusion • 25%
Other • 25%
School policy changes • 25%
Sports participation ban • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No major challenges • 33%
Some challenges • 33%
Major challenges • 34%
Significant incidents reported • 25%
Policy not fully implemented • 25%
No incidents reported • 25%
Minor incidents reported • 25%