Market
Reason for Bolsonaro's passport decision by January 19, 2025
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Brazilian•Jair Bolsonaro•Donald Trump•Bolsonaro•Paulo Bueno•Alexandre de Moraes•Supreme Federal Court•STF•Eduardo Bolsonaro•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Legal clearance • 25%
Diplomatic reasons • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Other reason • 25%
Official statement from Bolsonaro's lawyer or the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil
Story
Bolsonaro Invited to Trump and J.D. Vance's Inauguration, Seeks Passport Return
Jan 8, 2025, 01:40 PM
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been invited to attend the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance on January 20th. Bolsonaro's lawyer, Paulo Bueno, has requested the return of his passport from Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to enable his attendance at the event. Bolsonaro's passport has been withheld since last year due to investigations into an alleged coup attempt. The invitation was confirmed by Bolsonaro himself and his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who also acknowledged the significant historical nature of Trump's inauguration.
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Passport returned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court delays decision • 25%
Passport not returned • 25%
Approved • 33%
Denied • 33%
Pending • 34%
Approved • 33%
Denied • 33%
Pending • 34%
Passport returned • 25%
Request denied • 25%
Passport returned with conditions • 25%
Passport not returned • 25%
Pending further evidence • 34%
Denied • 33%
Approved • 33%
Passport Returned • 25%
Passport Not Returned • 25%
Decision Postponed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Joint decision • 34%
STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes • 33%
Attorney General's Office • 33%
Decision Delayed • 34%
Passport Denied • 33%
Passport Released • 33%
Take No Further Action • 34%
Submit New Request • 33%
Appeal the Decision • 33%
Approve with conditions • 25%
Request more information • 25%
Deny • 25%
Approve without conditions • 25%