Market
Primary outcome of Trump's intervention in California by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in wildfire damage • 25%
No significant change in wildfire damage • 25%
Increased political or legal challenges • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from California state agencies and federal disaster response evaluations
Story
Trump Uses Emergency Powers to Deploy Military, Increase Water Flow from Pacific Northwest to California Amid Wildfires
Jan 28, 2025, 05:09 AM
President Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. military has entered California under emergency powers to increase the flow of water from the Pacific Northwest to the state. This action aims to address the ongoing wildfires in Southern California by ensuring adequate water resources, following the destruction of over 16,200 structures and the loss of at least 29 lives. Trump's move overrides what he describes as 'fake environmental arguments' that have previously prioritized environmental concerns over human needs, specifically citing the protection of the Delta Smelt fish. The intervention follows an executive order signed by Trump, aimed at providing necessary water resources to Southern California and improving disaster response. The order criticizes state and local policies for leaving critical aquifers empty, which has impacted firefighting efforts and contributed to the severity of the wildfires.
View original story
Similar markets
Both conditions met • 25%
Neither condition met • 25%
Voter ID laws implemented • 25%
Water reforms enacted • 25%
Increased state-federal collaboration • 25%
No change in federal support • 25%
Increased federal support • 25%
Continued criticism without policy change • 25%
Visit happens but Trump does not meet with Newsom • 25%
Visit canceled by Newsom • 25%
Visit happens and Trump meets with Newsom • 25%
Visit canceled by Trump • 25%
Increased support for Trump • 25%
Decreased support for Trump • 25%
Increased political polarization • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Trump issues apology • 25%
Newsom alters policies • 25%
Neither condition implemented • 25%
Both conditions implemented • 25%
Only water policy changes implemented • 25%
Only voter ID laws implemented • 25%
Implement both policies • 25%
Implement voter ID only • 25%
Implement water management changes only • 25%
Implement neither policy • 25%
No challenges filed • 25%
Challenges filed but no rulings • 25%
Challenges ruled in favor of CA • 25%
Challenges ruled in favor of Trump admin • 25%
No significant resolution • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
Newsom prevails with state-led initiatives • 25%
Trump prevails with federal intervention • 25%
Only water policy changes implemented • 25%
Both conditions met • 25%
Neither condition met • 25%
Only voter ID laws implemented • 25%
Majority support neither condition • 25%
Majority support both conditions • 25%
Majority support voter ID condition • 25%
Majority support water reforms • 25%
Complies with neither condition • 25%
Complies with both conditions • 25%
Complies with water reforms • 25%
Complies with voter ID condition • 25%