Market
How will California respond to Trump's demands by end of 2025?
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Donald Trump•Los Angeles•California•Trump•Federal Emergency Management Agency•FEMA•Los Angeles County
Resolution / Starting Odds
Implement both policies • 25%
Implement voter ID only • 25%
Implement water management changes only • 25%
Implement neither policy • 25%
Official statements or legislative actions by the California government
Story
Trump Threatens Wildfire Aid, May Eliminate FEMA Unless California Adopts Voter ID, Water Changes
Jan 24, 2025, 05:11 PM
President Donald Trump has threatened to withhold federal disaster aid for wildfire-stricken Los Angeles unless California changes its water management policies and implements voter identification laws. Speaking on Friday, Trump stated, "I want to see two things in Los Angeles: Voter ID... and I want to see the water be released and come down into Los Angeles and throughout the state." He added, "After that, I will be the greatest president that California has ever seen." The President also suggested he might eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) if his conditions are not met. The remarks come amid devastating wildfires in Los Angeles County, prompting calls for federal support.
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Similar markets
Only voter ID laws implemented • 25%
Neither condition implemented • 25%
Only water policy changes implemented • 25%
Both conditions implemented • 25%
Complies with neither condition • 25%
Complies with voter ID condition • 25%
Complies with water reforms • 25%
Complies with both conditions • 25%
Complies with water policy only • 25%
Complies with both conditions • 25%
Complies with voter ID only • 25%
Does not comply with either • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full aid provided • 25%
Partial aid provided • 25%
Aid withheld • 25%
Voter ID laws implemented • 25%
Neither condition met • 25%
Both conditions met • 25%
Water reforms enacted • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Policy changes on water management • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Public campaign to counter accusations • 25%
Legal action against Trump • 25%
No challenges filed • 25%
Challenges ruled in favor of CA • 25%
Challenges filed but no rulings • 25%
Challenges ruled in favor of Trump admin • 25%
