Market
Primary outcome of Erdogan's ultimatum to Kurdish militants by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Kurdish militants lay down arms • 25%
Escalation of hostilities • 25%
Kurdish militants gain more territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Erdogan Warns Kurdish Militants to Lay Down Arms or Be Buried Amid Hostilities Following Assad's Fall on December 25, 2024
Dec 25, 2024, 10:18 AM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a stark ultimatum on December 25, 2024, stating that Kurdish militants in Syria must either lay down their weapons or face death. Erdogan emphasized that the militants would 'be buried' in Syrian soil if they did not comply. This warning comes amid escalating hostilities between Turkey-backed Syrian fighters and Kurdish groups following the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Erdogan's remarks reflect Turkey's ongoing military stance against Kurdish separatists in the region.
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Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increased Kurdish militant presence • 25%
No change in militant presence • 25%
Significant reduction in militant activity • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Kurdish militants • 25%
Initiate peace talks • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Increase military actions • 25%
Announce new policies • 25%
No prevention • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Successful prevention • 25%
Partial prevention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Turkey launches military operation • 25%
Negotiations lead to a peaceful resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
YPG complies and withdraws • 25%
PKK remains active • 25%
PKK self-dissolves • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
PKK eliminated by Turkey • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Increased PKK activity • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%