Market
Percentage of non-criminal record arrests in ICE raids by September 30, 2025?
3
ICE•Drug Enforcement Administration•DEA•United States•Donald Trump•American•Austin•San Antonio•McAllen•Houston•New York City•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 40% • 25%
40% to 50% • 25%
51% to 60% • 25%
More than 60% • 25%
Official ICE reports or major news outlets providing data on ICE arrests
Story
ICE Raids in Multiple Cities Result in Nearly 1,200 Arrests Amid Trump's Deportation Campaign
Jan 28, 2025, 01:00 PM
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in collaboration with other federal agencies including the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), conducted a series of raids across multiple cities in the United States over the weekend. These operations, part of President Donald Trump's pledge to initiate the largest deportation campaign in American history during his second term, resulted in the arrest of nearly 1,200 undocumented immigrants on a single day, marking a new daily high. The raids took place in cities such as Austin, San Antonio, McAllen, Houston, New York City, and others, with ICE reporting a total of over 3,500 arrests since Trump's second term began. The Trump administration has emphasized targeting criminals, but nearly half of those arrested on Sunday did not have criminal records, according to a senior administration official. The operations have sparked fear and uncertainty among immigrant communities, with reports of increased arrests and a shift in enforcement policies allowing for 'collateral arrests' of undocumented individuals encountered during operations.
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Similar markets
5,001 to 10,000 arrests • 25%
More than 10,000 arrests • 25%
Less than 1,000 arrests • 25%
1,000 to 5,000 arrests • 25%
Less than 50% • 25%
50% to 60% • 25%
More than 70% • 25%
61% to 70% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant changes • 25%
Policy changes or reforms • 25%
Increased deportations • 25%
Increased public opposition • 25%
Murder • 25%
Child Rape • 25%
Attempted Murder • 25%
Child Molestation • 25%
More than 20,000 • 25%
Less than 5,000 • 25%
10,001 to 20,000 • 25%
5,000 to 10,000 • 25%
Sexual assault • 25%
Drug offenses • 25%
Robbery • 25%
Aggravated assault • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
41% to 50% • 25%
More than 50% • 25%
30% to 40% • 25%
Less than 30% • 25%