Market
Outcome of U.S. foreign assistance review by April 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Foreign aid resumes as before • 25%
Foreign aid is significantly reduced • 25%
Foreign aid is redirected to new priorities • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official reports or announcements from USAID or the White House
Story
Trump Places Dozens of Senior USAID Officials on Leave Over Alleged Attempts to Circumvent 90-Day Foreign Aid Freeze
Jan 28, 2025, 12:57 AM
The Trump administration has placed nearly 60 senior officials at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on administrative leave, alleging attempts to circumvent President Donald Trump's executive orders freezing foreign aid. Acting Administrator Jason Gray informed staff, stating, "We have identified several actions within USAID that appeared designed to circumvent the President's Executive Orders." The executive orders include a 90-day pause on U.S. foreign assistance pending a comprehensive review. The decision impacts much of the agency's leadership in Washington, effectively decimating its senior ranks. The move follows suspicions that some officials were conspiring to override Trump's directives halting foreign aid programs.
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Aid Resumption with Changes • 25%
Permanent Aid Reduction • 25%
Aid Resumption without Changes • 25%
Aid Suspension Extended • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Review inconclusive • 25%
Major reforms implemented • 25%
Minor adjustments made • 25%
Aid fully reinstated • 25%
Aid partially reinstated • 25%
Aid remains frozen • 25%
Other • 25%
Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian Impact • 25%
Alignment with US Strategic Interests • 25%
Increased focus on Asia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased focus on Africa • 25%
Increased focus on Europe • 25%
Political alignment • 25%
Humanitarian impact • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Economic efficiency • 25%
Economic Development • 25%
Environmental Initiatives • 25%
Military Assistance • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Aid fully resumed • 25%
Aid permanently halted • 25%
Aid permanently reduced • 25%
Aid partially resumed • 25%
Aid resumed with modifications • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Aid remains frozen • 25%
Aid resumed as before • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economic Development • 25%
Security and Defense • 25%
Climate Change • 25%
Human Rights • 25%