Market
Outcome of U.S.-Canada Tariff Dispute by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Canada accepts tariffs • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Canada retaliates • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official announcements or agreements from U.S. and Canadian governments
Story
Trump Mocks Trudeau as 'Governor' Amid Tariff Tensions, Suggests Canada as 51st State
Dec 10, 2024, 12:20 PM
In a late-night post on his social media platform Truth Social dated December 10, 2024, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump referred to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada." The remark, made after a dinner at Mar-a-Lago, came following Trudeau's warning that Canada would respond to potential U.S. tariff threats. Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian imports and hinted at the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state. He mentioned looking forward to continuing discussions on tariffs and trade with Trudeau, anticipating "truly spectacular" results. The comment has sparked amusement and debate online, as Trump appeared to mock Trudeau by downgrading him from Prime Minister to Governor and referring to Canada as a U.S. state.
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Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Retaliatory measures enacted • 25%
Tariff implemented • 25%
Tariff averted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
U.S. Withdraws Tariffs • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Retaliatory Measures by Canada • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
No tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed by Canada only • 25%
Tariffs imposed by U.S. only • 25%
Tariffs imposed by both • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary tariff suspension • 25%
Tariffs avoided with agreement • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated to a lower rate • 25%
Tariffs indefinitely postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No change • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Partial tariffs imposed • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided through agreement • 25%