Market
Formal US-Canada trade agreement on tariff dispute by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from US or Canadian government or trade authorities
Story
Trudeau Vows Retaliation if Trump Imposes 25% Tariffs on Canada Starting February 1
Jan 21, 2025, 04:36 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed to respond strongly if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, which could take effect as early as February 1. Trudeau stated that "Canada will respond, and everything is on the table," indicating that his government is prepared to implement retaliatory measures, including "dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs." He acknowledged that such actions would "cost Canadians," but assured that the federal government would be "there to support and compensate businesses" impacted by the trade dispute. Canadian officials have described their potential response as "robust, rapid, and measured," signaling a readiness to engage in a trade dispute if necessary.
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Retaliatory measures enacted • 25%
Tariff implemented • 25%
Tariff averted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
U.S. Withdraws Tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Retaliatory Measures by Canada • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Canada accepts tariffs • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Canada retaliates • 25%
