Market
Outcome of Phase II Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by end of 42-day period
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•United States•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fails • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news organizations
Story
Netanyahu Assured by Biden and Trump of US Support and Weapons Return for Gaza Fighting if Ceasefire Fails
Jan 17, 2025, 11:09 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed his cabinet that he has received assurances from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump that the United States will support Israel's return to intense fighting in Gaza if negotiations on Phase II of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas fail and Hamas does not accept Israel's security demands. Netanyahu also stated that upon Trump's inauguration, Israel will receive back all the weapons that were previously seized or denied by the Biden administration. This assurance is considered crucial as it would provide Israel with additional tools to resume fighting if necessary. The Israeli government has approved a deal with Hamas that includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for over 1,700 Palestinian detainees during the first phase of the ceasefire, which is set to last 42 days and begin on Sunday.
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Major violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, conflict resumes • 25%
Temporary extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with limited hostilities • 25%
Successful extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire ends with no agreement • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Complete Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Partial Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Talks Suspended • 25%
Successful prisoner exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Security guarantees achieved • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Ceasefire agreement delayed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapsed • 25%
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Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%