Market
Outcome of Paraguay's Recognition of González by End of 2025?
2
Nicolás Maduro•Paraguay•Venezuela•Santiago Peña•Edmundo González Urrutia•Peña•González•Venezuelan•Ricardo Capella•South American
Resolution / Starting Odds
Recognition leads to improved relations • 25%
Recognition leads to further diplomatic tensions • 25%
Recognition has no significant impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements and news reports
Story
Venezuela and Paraguay Break Ties, Expel Diplomats Over González Recognition
Jan 6, 2025, 08:10 PM
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has ordered the breaking of diplomatic relations with Paraguay, announcing the withdrawal of Venezuela's diplomatic personnel, after Paraguayan President Santiago Peña recognized opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia as the legitimate president-elect of Venezuela. Venezuela rejected Peña's statements as ignoring international law. In response, Paraguay reaffirmed its support for González, demanded that Venezuelan Ambassador Ricardo Capella and diplomatic staff leave the country within 48 hours, and recognized González as president-elect four days before his inauguration. The diplomatic rift escalates tensions between the two South American nations over disputed election results.
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Similar markets
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Recognition by three to five countries • 25%
Recognition by one or two countries • 25%
No recognition • 25%
Widespread recognition • 25%
11 to 20 countries • 25%
More than 20 countries • 25%
5 to 10 countries • 25%
Less than 5 countries • 25%
Maintains ties with Taiwan only • 25%
Establishes ties with China only • 25%
Severs ties with both • 25%
Maintains ties with both • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Widespread recognition • 25%
Limited recognition • 25%
No recognition • 25%
China • 25%
Another country • 25%
No new relations established • 25%
Other • 25%
21 to 30 countries • 25%
Less than 10 countries • 25%
10 to 20 countries • 25%
More than 30 countries • 25%
Strengthen ties with Taiwan • 25%
Re-establish diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Impose trade restrictions • 25%
Condemnation from major Western countries • 25%
Support from Latin American countries • 25%
Support from major Western countries • 25%
Mixed or no significant response • 25%
Recognized by US • 25%
Recognized by Argentina • 25%
Recognized by Uruguay • 25%
Not recognized by any • 25%