Market
Outcome of language barrier incidents involving North Korean and Russian troops by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
No further incidents reported • 25%
Incidents continue but decrease • 25%
Incidents increase • 25%
Formal measures implemented to prevent incidents • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian intelligence, international news agencies, and military assessments
Story
North Korean Soldiers Launch First Combat in 70+ Years in Kursk, Ukraine
Dec 15, 2024, 09:05 AM
North Korean soldiers have reportedly been involved in combat operations in Russia's Kursk region, marking their first significant military engagement in over 70 years. Ukrainian intelligence reports that these soldiers, part of a combined force with Russian troops, launched massive infantry assaults across open terrain, often running into machine gun fire. This has resulted in significant casualties, with around 200 North Korean soldiers killed or injured. In a notable incident, North Korean troops mistakenly opened fire on their Russian allies, killing eight members of the Chechen Akhmat unit due to a language barrier, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled these assaults, with drone footage capturing the aftermath of the attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed the deployment of North Korean soldiers by Russia, and Ukrainian military sources estimate that approximately 11,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia, some of whom are now engaged in combat.
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Translation Devices Deployed • 25%
Training Programs Implemented • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Other Measures • 25%
Military aid to Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions against North Korea • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Continued engagement with no change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Ukrainian drone strikes • 25%
Ground combat • 25%
Self-destruction • 25%
Other • 25%
Acknowledge but downplay • 25%
No official response • 25%
Acknowledge and justify • 25%
Deny involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdrawal due to high casualties • 25%
Successful adaptation and integration • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned without exchange • 25%
Exchange for Ukrainian POWs • 25%
Remain in Ukraine • 25%
Defected to South Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
Remained in Ukraine • 25%
Returned to North Korea • 25%
Territorial gains for Ukraine • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Significant territorial gains for Russia • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Limited or no official response • 25%
Diplomatic talks and negotiations • 25%
Strong condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Denial of official orders • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Confirmation of North Korean military orders • 25%
Evidence of voluntary participation • 25%