Market
Outcome of first 2nd Gen Starship mission in January 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful mission • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
Mission outcome reports from SpaceX and FAA
Story
FAA Grants SpaceX License for Starship Flight 7 in January 2025 Using 2d Generation Starship
Dec 17, 2024, 10:50 PM
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has granted SpaceX a launch license modification for the upcoming Starship Flight 7, which will utilize the 2d generation Starship. This authorization allows SpaceX to proceed with multiple missions using the Starship/Super Heavy vehicle, adhering to the same mission profile and vehicle configuration as the previous flight. The license was issued well ahead of the projected launch date in January 2025, indicating the FAA's commitment to enabling safe space transportation. The approval covers both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship vehicle, with no significant modifications from the previous flight.
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Mission Aborted • 25%
Complete Success • 25%
Partial Success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful launch but mission failure • 25%
Successful launch • 33%
Partial success • 33%
Failure • 34%
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Mission failure • 25%
Major issues encountered • 25%
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Partial success (booster only) • 25%
Partial success (upper stage only) • 25%
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Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
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Explosion during launch • 25%
Successful launch, but partial failure • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%