Market
What will be the outcome of Space One's next rocket launch attempt by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Official announcements from Space One and Japanese space industry reports
Story
Space One's Kairos No. 2 Rocket Launch Fails After Liftoff on December 18, 2024, Mission Terminated for Five Satellites
Dec 18, 2024, 02:47 AM
The Kairos No. 2 rocket, developed by the Japanese startup Space One, was launched on December 18, 2024, at 11:00 AM from Kii Spaceport in Wakayama Prefecture. This marked the company's second attempt to place satellites into orbit, following a failed launch in March 2024 that ended in an explosion. Despite a successful liftoff, the mission faced critical issues shortly after takeoff. Approximately 80 seconds into the flight, an anomaly occurred with the first-stage engine's nozzle control, leading to the rocket losing its trajectory. Space One initiated flight termination measures at around 11:12 AM, declaring the mission's success impossible. The company plans to hold a press conference later to discuss the details of the failure. This incident represents a significant setback for Japan's commercial space industry, as Space One seeks to become the first private firm in the country to successfully launch a satellite into orbit.
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Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Partial success (satellite deployed but not in intended orbit) • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Other • 25%
Spaceport Kii • 25%
Tanegashima Space Center • 25%
Uchinoura Space Center • 25%
Partial success • 33%
Failure • 34%
Successful launch • 33%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful launch but mission failure • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Explosion during launch • 25%
Successful launch, but partial failure • 25%
Explosion during flight • 25%
Partial success (upper stage only) • 25%
Failure (neither successful) • 25%
Partial success (booster only) • 25%
Full success (booster and upper stage) • 25%
Partial Success • 25%
No Launch • 25%
Failure • 25%
Success • 25%
Successful orbit and landing • 25%
Successful orbit, failed landing • 25%
Failed orbit, successful landing • 25%
Failed orbit and landing • 25%