Market
Outcome of 14th Amendment attempt against Trump by Jan 6, 2025?
3
Jamie Raskin•Democrats•14th Amendment•Donald Trump•United States•Congress•Electoral College•Trump•Capitol•Raskin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump disqualified • 25%
Attempt fails • 25%
No attempt made • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official Congressional records and media reports
Story
Democrats, Led by Raskin, May Use 14th Amendment to Block Trump's Presidency on January 6, 2025
Dec 26, 2024, 04:37 PM
Representative Jamie Raskin and other Democrats are reportedly considering using Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to block Donald Trump from taking office following his victory in the 2024 presidential election. This amendment states that no person who has engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or given aid or comfort to its enemies, can hold office unless Congress votes by a two-thirds majority to lift the disqualification. The plan involves Congress potentially rejecting Electoral College votes for Trump on January 6, 2025, citing his alleged role in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack as grounds for disqualification under the amendment. Raskin has expressed fears of 'rampaging Trump mobs' and 'civil war conditions' leading up to Trump's inauguration, asserting that Democrats must disqualify him. Critics argue that this move could be seen as an attempt at insurrection by Democrats, drawing parallels to accusations made against Trump post-2020 election. The hashtag #JAN6th2025 has been used in discussions about this potential action.
View original story
Similar markets
Challenge dismissed • 25%
Pending decision • 25%
Challenge upheld • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Blocked from office • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
Allowed to take office • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Other opinion • 25%
Convictions or penalties • 25%
Settlements reached • 25%
Cases dismissed • 25%
No legal actions initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Members jailed • 25%
Members fined • 25%
No legal action taken • 25%
Majority disagree applicable • 25%
Majority agree applicable • 25%
No consensus • 25%
Evenly divided • 25%
Majority agree with blocking • 25%
Majority disagree with blocking • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Amendment Not Voted On • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Amendment Failed • 25%
Amendment Passed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No action taken • 25%
Action taken but unsuccessful • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Action taken and successful • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority support • 25%