Market
Outcome of 14th Amendment change attempt by end of 2025
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Amendment Passed • 25%
Amendment Failed • 25%
Amendment Not Voted On • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official legislative records or announcements from the U.S. Congress or major news outlets
Story
Trump Plans to End Birthright Citizenship on First Day in Office, Aims to Deport All Illegal Immigrants Over Four-Year Term
Dec 8, 2024, 02:44 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to end birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants on his first day in office. This policy shift is a significant part of his immigration agenda, which aims to address illegal immigration more aggressively. Trump stated that he intends to deport all immigrants residing in the U.S. illegally over his four-year term, beginning with those convicted of crimes. He emphasized that families of undocumented immigrants would be deported together, ensuring that American citizen family members could also face deportation. Trump has expressed intentions to work with Democrats on immigration reform, stating that he will review individual cases. He also indicated a desire to amend the 14th Amendment, which currently guarantees citizenship to all persons born in the U.S. He described the existing birthright citizenship policy as 'ridiculous' and asserted that the U.S. is the only country that maintains such a practice.
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Other outcome • 25%
Trump disqualified • 25%
Attempt fails • 25%
No attempt made • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Little public attention • 25%
Widespread opposition • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Allowed to take office • 25%
Blocked from office • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Policy change blocked by courts • 25%
Policy change implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Policy change not pursued • 25%
Pending decision • 25%
Challenge dismissed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Challenge upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Challenge upheld • 25%
Challenge dismissed • 25%
Amendment partially invalidated • 25%
Partially upheld • 25%
Overturned • 25%
Upheld • 25%
Pending • 25%
Other • 25%
No ruling by 2025 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing legal proceedings • 25%
ERA not recognized • 25%
ERA recognized as 28th Amendment • 25%
Struck Down • 25%
Partially Upheld • 25%
Upheld • 25%
No Ruling by Deadline • 25%
Upheld • 33%
No decision • 34%
Overturned • 33%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Majority support • 25%
No significant change • 25%