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New ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by March 31, 2025?
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Israeli•Lebanese•Lebanon•Lebanese Health Ministry•Tyre•Israel•Hezbollah•Lebanese Army•Israeli attacks
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hezbollah, and verified reports from major news outlets
Story
Israeli Forces Kill 22, Wound 124 as Lebanese Return Home After Missed Withdrawal Deadline
Jan 26, 2025, 01:31 PM
On January 26, 2025, Israeli forces opened fire on Lebanese civilians and soldiers in southern Lebanon, killing at least 22 people and wounding 124 others, including nine children and a paramedic, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The incidents occurred near the towns of Tyre, Mays al-Jabal, and along the Marwahin-Dhayra-Tyre road as residents attempted to return to their homes following the expiration of a withdrawal deadline stipulated in a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Despite the agreed-upon deadline, Israeli troops remained in southern Lebanon, leading to protests and attempts by civilians to reclaim their homes. The Lebanese Army reported that one of its soldiers was killed and another wounded by Israeli fire. Lebanese authorities condemned the Israeli attacks, which resulted in numerous civilian casualties.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
