Market
Official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel and Lebanon or major news outlets
Story
IDF Drone Strike Kills 7 Civilians, Injures 4 in Southern Lebanon's Tayr Debba
Jan 10, 2025, 02:47 PM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon, targeting a vehicle loaded with weapons used by the Hezbollah terrorist organization. The strike occurred after the IDF identified several Hezbollah operatives loading weapons into the vehicle from a military compound near the town of Tayr Debba in the Tyre district. The attack resulted in multiple casualties, with the Lebanese health ministry reporting at least two people killed and two others wounded initially, later updating the death toll to seven civilians killed and four injured. The IDF stated that the operation was aimed at removing a threat, and they remain committed to the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon, continuing to operate against any threats to Israel and its citizens.
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Other outcome • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%
Violated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%