Market
Main diplomatic outcome regarding Israel's involvement in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
International sanctions • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or credible news sources
Story
IRGC Chief Calls Syrian Conflict a 'Bitter Lesson,' Warns Israel Will 'Pay a Heavy Price'
Dec 15, 2024, 08:28 AM
Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, stated that events in Syria have been a 'bitter and difficult lesson' that must be learned from. Speaking at a conference, Salami emphasized that Iran's presence in Syria aimed to preserve the dignity of the Syrian people and not to annex Syrian territory. He asserted that Syria would be liberated by its own strong sons and that foreign forces are seeking to divide the country, each attempting to occupy parts of its land. Salami warned that Israel would 'pay a heavy price' and would be 'buried' in Syria, though this would take some time. He expressed concern that 'Israelis can see inside the households in Damascus with the naked eye,' calling this situation 'intolerable.' He reaffirmed Iran's commitment to defending its security, independence, and territory, stating that Iran would not allow anyone to threaten it.
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Establishment of relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Israel increases presence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Israel agrees to withdraw • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
No progress • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Other • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Resolution Passed Condemning Israel • 25%
Mediation Efforts Initiated • 25%
Increased regional instability • 25%
Assad regime remains stable • 25%
Increased regional stability • 25%
Assad regime collapses • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase military action • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Seek diplomatic solutions • 25%
Ongoing occupation • 25%
Withdrawal without conflict • 25%
Extended military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Deployment leads to peace negotiations • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no incidents • 25%
Prolonged deployment due to ongoing threats • 25%
Escalation into wider conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
New security agreement reached • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%