Market
How will Turkey react to SDF-Israel talks by March 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Condemnation and diplomatic protest • 25%
Increased military actions in Syria • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government or reports from major news outlets
Story
US-Backed YPG/PKK Forces Initiate First Talks with Israel, Reported by Kan News
Dec 7, 2024, 07:05 PM
Backchannel talks have reportedly commenced between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Israeli officials amid rising tensions in Syria. The discussions follow concerns regarding the advances of Turkey-backed rebel groups in the region. Initial contacts between representatives of the Kurdish-led SDF and the Israeli government signify a notable shift in relations, particularly as the SDF continues to face challenges from various factions, including the PKK/YPG terrorist organization. Israeli media outlet Kan News confirmed that these dialogues mark the first official interaction between the SDF and Israel, highlighting the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the area.
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Failed mediation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Successful mediation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Military confrontation occurs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No cooperation • 25%
Formal coordination established • 25%
Coordination rejected • 25%
Informal cooperation only • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%