Market
How will NATO's weapon supply policy to Ukraine be resolved by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
NATO restricts weapon supply • 25%
NATO continues current supply policy • 25%
NATO increases weapon supply • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Official NATO statements, verified news reports
Story
Putin to Demand Ukraine's Neutrality, Limited Army, and NATO Rejection in Talks with Trump, per Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 05:15 PM
In upcoming negotiations with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to demand that Ukraine never join NATO and significantly reduce its military capabilities. Reports indicate that Putin seeks to establish Ukraine as a neutral state, which would involve curtailing military ties with the NATO alliance. Additional demands from Russia include restrictions on NATO's supply of weapons to Ukraine, specifically that such arms should not be used against Russia or for reclaiming territories. These conditions reflect Russia's assertive stance in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Putin reportedly believing he holds an advantage in the situation.
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Similar markets
Increased slightly • 25%
Remained the same • 25%
Increased significantly • 25%
Decreased • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No response • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Increase in their own aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Decreased aid and support • 25%
Increased aid and support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete cessation of aid • 25%
Air transport • 25%
Other • 25%
Land transport • 25%
Sea transport • 25%