Market
FBI conclusion on motivation for New Orleans attack by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Terrorism • 25%
Personal grievance • 25%
Mental health issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Official FBI reports or credible media reports
Story
New Orleans Deadly Attack on New Year's Revelers Linked to U.S. Army Veteran, FBI Confirms
Jan 1, 2025, 07:46 PM
A deadly attack on New Year's revelers in New Orleans has been linked to a suspect identified as a U.S. Army veteran, according to the FBI. Alethea Duncan, Assistant Special Agent in Charge, confirmed the suspect's military background but stated that details regarding the individual's history could not be disclosed. The incident has raised concerns about the motivations and background of the suspect, although no further information has been provided at this time.
View original story
Similar markets
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Solely domestic actors identified • 25%
International terrorist group involvement • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
No suspects apprehended • 25%
Partial apprehension of suspects • 25%
All suspects apprehended and charged • 25%
Other • 25%
ISIS Connection • 25%
Lone Wolf Attack • 25%
Domestic Terrorism • 25%
Inspired but not coordinated • 25%
No ISIS connection • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Direct coordination • 25%
Political • 25%
Other • 25%
Religious • 25%
Personal grievance • 25%
Part of larger terror cell • 25%
Inconclusive due to lack of evidence • 25%
Part of a larger network • 25%
Lone wolf attack • 25%
Suspect apprehended and charged • 25%
Suspect apprehended but not charged • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Acted alone • 25%
Unclear or inconclusive • 25%
Part of a larger plot • 25%
Other • 25%
Domestic terrorism • 25%
Lone wolf attack confirmed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Terrorism confirmed • 25%
Terrorism not confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Personal Grievance • 25%
Other • 25%
Accidental • 25%
Terrorism • 25%