Market
Economic analysis of U.S. subsidies to Canada/Mexico by Sep 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed $100B+ to Canada • 25%
Confirmed $300B+ to Mexico • 25%
Amounts less than stated • 25%
No official confirmation • 25%
Reports from economic think tanks or government agencies like the Congressional Budget Office
Story
Trump Suggests Canada and Mexico Become U.S. States, Citing $100B and $300B Subsidies
Dec 8, 2024, 03:24 PM
In a recent interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," President-elect Donald Trump suggested that Canada and Mexico should become the 51st and 52nd states of the United States if they continue to rely on substantial American subsidies. Trump claimed that the U.S. is subsidizing Canada by over $100 billion and Mexico by almost $300 billion annually. He stated, "If we're going to subsidize them, let them become a state," and hinted that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could become the governor of Canada if it were to join the U.S.
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Increase • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Eliminated • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Tariffs removed after implementation • 25%
Tariffs not implemented • 25%
Tariffs fully implemented • 25%
Tariffs partially implemented • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Significant trade conflict • 25%
Improved • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No change in exports • 25%
Data unclear or mixed • 25%
Decrease in exports • 25%
Increase in exports • 25%
Exports decrease by >10% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Exports decrease by <5% • 25%
Exports decrease by 5-10% • 25%