Market
Azerbaijan's primary diplomatic response to plane crash by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal protest • 25%
Request for compensation • 25%
Military response • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official diplomatic communications or press releases from Azerbaijan
Story
Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crashes in Aktau, Kazakhstan After Suspected Missile Strike Amid Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Grozny
Dec 25, 2024, 01:37 PM
An Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane, identified as 4K-AZ65 and an Embraer ERJ-190AR, crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after reportedly being hit by shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile. The incident occurred while the plane was en route to Grozny, Russia, and had to divert to Aktau as an alternate airport due to Ukrainian kamikaze drones targeting Grozny. Traces of shrapnel were found on the tail and fuselage of the aircraft, suggesting it might have been mistakenly shot down by Russian air defenses amid heightened alert due to ongoing drone attacks in the region. A surviving passenger reported hearing an explosion before the crash, adding to speculation that the plane was brought down by air defense fire.
View original story
Similar markets
Other response • 25%
Formal protest • 25%
Diplomatic sanctions • 25%
Acceptance of findings • 25%
Military response • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Legal Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Military Response • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Legal action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Flight suspensions • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Joint investigation • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Joint investigation • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
No action taken • 25%
No sanctions • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Sanctions considered but not implemented • 25%
Russia held accountable • 25%
Joint accountability with other parties • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No accountability established • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
